72-Hour Probabilistic Forecast

or

Updating forecast… · °C / °F

Loading forecast data…

Fetching forecast models — first load can take a minute

☑ GEFS HRRR IFS AIFS

median likely range (10–90%) full range (min–max) lines show each model's median — select a single model to see its uncertainty bands

Temperature

Precipitation

Wind Speed

Cloud Cover

Data: dynamical.org NOAA GEFS · 31-member ensemble forecast · NOAA HRRR · 48-hour hourly forecast · ECMWF IFS ENS · 51-member ensemble forecast · ECMWF AIFS ENS · 51-member AI ensemble forecast

This app shows a 72-hour probabilistic weather forecast by blending four weather prediction models: NOAA GEFS (31-member global ensemble), NOAA HRRR (high-resolution hourly), ECMWF IFS ENS (51-member global ensemble), and ECMWF AIFS ENS (51-member AI ensemble). The shaded bands on each chart show forecast uncertainty — the median line is the most likely outcome, the darker band spans the 10th–90th percentile range, and the lighter band shows the full min–max envelope.

Magic Blend weights each model by its recent accuracy at your location (inverse-squared error), so better-performing models contribute more. Current weights are shown below. All forecast data is sourced from dynamical.org's open Zarr stores.